Trader bets $147M on oil rise as US strikes Iran island

An anonymous trader opened about $147 million in leveraged bets that oil prices will rise, placing them on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid on Nov. 2, the day before Americans vote in the midterm elections. Crude bounced back on Tuesday after US forces struck Iran's Qeshm Island. The positions are a bet that the eight-month war will escalate again once the vote is over, even as diplomats push for a deal.

The positions

Onchain analytics platform Lookonchain reported that the trader opened 10x leveraged long positions worth $91 million in Brent and $56 million in WTI crude futures, according to TheStreet. As of 9:52 p.m. ET on Monday, the combined $147.37 million in longs showed unrealized losses of about $954,900, TokenPost reported. The trader kept buying Brent as prices fell, adding roughly $51.78 million and more than doubling that position, while trimming WTI exposure slightly. Hyperliquid has become popular with oil speculators since the war began because it allows trading around the clock, including weekends, TheStreet noted.thestreet.com+1

Strike revives risk premium

Oil rose on Tuesday after a report that the United States had struck Qeshm Island. The report raised fears of a wider conflict and longer disruptions to Middle East supplies, Reuters reported. Citing US officials, The Wall Street Journal News Corp ↗ 1.28% said Washington has carried out "limited strikes" on Iran in recent weeks, according to CNBC. Some officials called the attacks defensive measures meant to stop Iran from targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, The National reported.reuters.com+2

The rebound followed a drop of more than 7% in both benchmarks on Monday, when talks between Iranian and Qatari officials raised hopes that the war could end, Reuters reported. That sell-off came after reports that President Donald Trump wanted to give diplomacy more time before deciding whether to resume major strikes after the midterms, Hürriyet Daily News reported. Then a senior Iranian official said a deal was still far off. "Overnight US strikes renewed uncertainty," said Daniel Richards of Emirates NBD, The National reported.thenationalnews.com+2

Election stakes

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, and voters say rising fuel and food costs tied to the war are among their top concerns, TheStreet reported. The same outlet cited a report that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed for another wave of strikes on Iran after the vote. Goldman Sachs ↗ 4.67% has raised its oil forecasts and warned that Brent could reach $140 a barrel in 2027 if Gulf production stays well below its 2025 average, The Economic Times reported. Columbia University's Karen Young warned that new US-Israeli strikes could set off another jump in prices, UNN reported, citing Bloomberg.economictimes.indiatimes.com+2