Super El Nino could cause 451,000 excess deaths, researchers warn

This year's powerful El Niño could lead to as many as 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide over the nine months from June 2026 through February 2027, according to a report released Wednesday by the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab. The projection underscores how a natural climate pattern, supercharged by human-caused warming, is poised to exact a devastating toll on the world's poorest and hottest regions.reuters+1

The report estimates that extremely hot days will increase by 44 percent compared with normal years, with global land temperatures running about 1.2°C above average during the El Niño period. Of the 451,000 projected excess deaths, roughly 239,000 are expected to occur in the six-month window from September 2026 through February 2027.thehindubusinessline+2

Global South Bears the Heaviest Burden

Nigeria is projected to record the highest national toll, with an estimated 31,400 excess heat deaths between September and February, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600. Across Africa's Sahel region — including Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Sudan — researchers project roughly 66,800 additional deaths over that period.wsls+3

Southeast Asia faces severe exposure as well. The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia could see a combined 19,400 additional deaths, while India is projected to suffer about 15,800 and Brazil 13,300. Researchers warned the toll could climb further if El Niño persists into 2027, with India and Pakistan particularly vulnerable during their summer months.news+3

A 'Postcard From the Future'

The Climate Impact Lab described the current El Niño as a "postcard from the future," saying the temperatures it is producing could become normal within a few decades as climate change advances. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have already matched the record level set during the 2015-16 El Niño, according to Berkeley Earth climatologist Zeke Hausfather.theedgemarkets+2

"If you're already in a hot place, the extra couple of degrees are going to be much more dangerous," said Michael Greenstone, an economist at the University of Chicago and co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab. The World Health Organization has separately warned that the El Niño poses a threat to global health, particularly where climate shocks intersect with weak health systems and food insecurity.economictimes.indiatimes+1

Window to Act

The report's authors called on governments to deploy heat-warning systems, cooling centers, hydration stations and expanded hospital capacity before temperatures peak. Abhiyant Tiwari, a heat expert at NRDC India, said the projections should serve as a call to action. "The real measure of our preparedness is not how many heat warnings we issue, but how effectively we protect people and reduce preventable deaths," he said.newsweek+1