Crude oil snaps 4-day slide on hopes for US-Iran talks at UN

Crude oil prices edged higher in early Asian trading on Tuesday, September 22, snapping a four-day losing streak, as markets weighed the prospect of diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

Brent crude futures for November rose about 0.75% to around $101 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for October gained roughly 0.4%, according to the Economic Times. The rebound followed a sharp selloff on Monday, when Brent settled at $100.34 — down 3.4% — and WTI fell 4.5% to $95.78, both hitting their lowest levels since September 9.economictimes+1

Diplomatic Signals From Washington and Tehran

The bounce came after President Trump signaled over the weekend that he would be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is expected in New York for the General Assembly's General Debate running September 22–28. Fox News ↗ 0.28% correspondent Trey Yingst first reported that Trump said he would "probably" be open to such a meeting. Iran, meanwhile, has conveyed conditions to mediators for re-engaging in negotiations, Al Jazeera reported, citing Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei.globalbankingandfinance+3

"Just a couple days ago that would have seemed like a very far-flung idea," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho ↗ 1.37%, describing the diplomatic opening as "a move in the right direction".globalbankingandfinance

Saudi Arabia Reroutes Oil Through the Gulf

Saudi Aramco has ramped up crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz after Houthi attacks on its East-West pipeline forced a halt to some shipments via the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Tanker tracking data showed Aramco loaded about 14 million barrels onto seven supertankers inside the Gulf on Sunday. Satellite data indicated Saudi oil moving through the strait averaged 2.9 million barrels per day over the past six days, up sharply from just 700,000 bpd in August. Reuters reported separately that Aramco has sold roughly 60 million barrels from its Ras Tanura port for September and October loadings.reuters+2

Uncertainty Clouds the Outlook

Despite the partial recovery in Saudi exports, analysts remain deeply uncertain about where prices are headed. JPMorgan ↗ 0.68% said last week it no longer holds a baseline view for the oil market — the first time since the Iran conflict began in February — citing an inability to "model the endgame". Goldman Sachs ↗ 1.85% has outlined a scenario in which prices could reach $120 a barrel if Middle East shipping disruptions intensify, though a return to normal exports could bring crude back toward $80.reuters+1

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, cautioned that Tuesday's uptick had "the appearance of a typical short-covering bounce after the recent decline, rather than a fundamental shift".economictimes