South Africa, Australia brace for potentially record El Niño summer

As the Southern Hemisphere heads into summer, South Africa and Australia are preparing for what forecasters warn could be the strongest El Niño event since at least 1950. The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is firmly established and forecasts a near 100% probability it will persist through February 2027, with the potential to reach "very strong" intensity before peaking toward the end of 2026.wmo+1

South Africa Sounds the Alarm

Buffalo City in the Eastern Cape has warned residents to prepare for possible water shortages, heat stress, veld fires, and pressure on crops and livestock as the anticipated El Niño summer approaches. The municipality urged residents to save water, fix leaks, and stay alert for emergency updates.dailydispatch

In Cape Town, dam levels sit at 75% — well below last year's mark — and the city is considering introducing water restrictions as a precautionary measure. Cape Town consumed 855 million litres of water per day during the latest reporting period, just below its winter target of 860 million litres. Recent thunderstorms brought welcome rainfall but did little to meaningfully boost stored supply, as what matters most is sustained rain over the mountain catchments feeding the region's six major dams.timeout

El Niño is generally associated with hotter and drier summer conditions across much of South Africa, though the South African Weather Service cautions that other oceanic and atmospheric systems also shape regional rainfall. Dam levels typically need to reach at least 80% to avoid nationally imposed restrictions, and Cape Town's supply dropped by roughly 40 percentage points during the previous summer.timeout

NOAA's latest outlook puts the probability of a very strong El Niño above 90%, with a 75% chance it could exceed any El Niño in records dating back to 1950. Reuters reported the WMO called it a potentially "supersized" event that may become the strongest ever recorded.reuters+1

Australia Watches Closely

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology struck a more measured tone, noting that El Niño strength does not always translate into proportional impacts on the country's rainfall and temperature. Models indicate the current event is likely to become the strongest on record, potentially exceeding the 1982–83 peak of 2.6°C above average in the central tropical Pacific, possibly surpassing 3.0°C.bom

However, the Bureau emphasized that Australia's climate is shaped by multiple factors, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, sea surface temperatures around the continent, and long-term climate change. National water storages are around 71% full, with capital city storages above 80% except for Melbourne at around 70% and Perth at about 40%. The rainfall outlook for October to December shows below-average rainfall is likely for parts of southeastern Australia, while above-average rainfall is very likely for most of Western Australia.bom

A Season of Uncertainty

"Cape Town is a water-scarce city, and using water wisely should remain part of our everyday habits," said Zahid Badroodien, Cape Town's Mayoral Committee Member for Water and Sanitation. The Bureau of Meteorology echoed a similar message of preparedness: while El Niño has often been linked to widespread dry conditions, warmer oceans and other climate influences can strengthen, weaken, or even outweigh its effects.timeout+1