WTO says AI demand is driving global trade growth despite tariffs and war

The World Trade Organization said Wednesday that global merchandise trade continues to grow above trend, with its Goods Trade Barometer climbing to 102.0 from 101.7 earlier this year, driven largely by surging demand for electronic components tied to artificial intelligence investment.marketscreener+1

The reading, which tracks export orders, air freight, container shipping, automotive products, raw materials, and electronic components, indicates that trade volumes are expanding faster than the long-term average despite headwinds from higher U.S. tariffs and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.theedgemalaysia

AI Investment Offsets Geopolitical Drag

"Strong demand for electronic components and other inputs associated with investment in artificial intelligence continues to support trade, helping to offset the negative effects of conflict in the Middle East and ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policies," the WTO said.marketscreener

The electronic components index recorded the strongest reading among the barometer's sub-indicators at 104.9, reflecting the global buildout of data centers and AI infrastructure. Export orders, considered a leading predictor of future trade, rose to 103.5, while international air freight and agricultural raw materials also remained above trend at 102.8 and 102.6, respectively.economictimes.indiatimes

Container shipping was the sole weak spot, slipping to 99.6 — just below the baseline of 100 — as disruptions to transit through the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on maritime logistics.whalesbook+1

Tariffs and Conflict Cloud the Outlook

The WTO's March forecast projected world merchandise trade volume growth of 1.9% in 2026 under its baseline scenario, down from 4.6% in 2025. A high-energy-price scenario tied to the Middle East conflict put the figure at 1.4%, though the organization noted that sustained AI investment could add half a percentage point to growth.newsbytesapp+1

According to The Wall Street Journal News Corp ↘ 0.03%, President Trump on Tuesday signed orders banning the importation of many dairy products, alcoholic beverages, and motorcycles from Canada, adding to earlier 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods. U.S. trade policy and the duration of the conflict remain the key uncertainties for the global trade outlook.marketscreener

The WTO said its barometer suggests "trade growth continues to pick up in the third quarter of 2026," with an updated Global Trade Outlook due in October.economictimes.indiatimes+1