Goldman says Hormuz oil flows up to two-thirds of pre-war levels

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to roughly two-thirds of pre-conflict levels, easing some pressure on global crude prices even as the U.S.-Iran war continues to disrupt energy markets, according to Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ↘ 0.36%.

Total exports of crude and oil products from the Persian Gulf have risen to 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, Goldman analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in a research note published Thursday. The figure remains 7 to 8 million barrels per day below pre-war levels but marks a sharp rebound from the trough of 5 to 6 million barrels per day reached in March, when the conflict that began in late February was at its most disruptive.bloomberg+3

Adapting to Conflict

Goldman attributed the recovery largely to adaptive behavior by producers and shippers navigating the ongoing disruption. The bank pointed to a rise in "dark crossings" — transits conducted with reduced transponder visibility — by specialized shippers, as well as increased ship-to-ship transfers.finance.yahoo+1

"The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers, and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Mideast conflict," Goldman said in the note, adding that higher dark flows could "moderate the upside to crude oil prices even if Mideast disruptions last longer."finance.yahoo

The bank said the upward revisions suggest Strait of Hormuz transits specifically are likely close to U.S. officials' estimate of 8 million to 10 million barrels per day. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. has guided 130 million barrels out over the past 14 days under what he called "Operation Economic Outcast."boereport+2

Gas and Fuel Risks Persist

While crude supply has partially recovered, Goldman warned that flows of liquefied natural gas and refined fuels remain more constrained. "We continue to see greater price upside to European natural gas prices and deferred oil product prices in persistent disruption scenarios than for crude," the bank said.finance.yahoo

Brent crude settled up 2.1% on Thursday after a Wall Street Journal News Corp ↘ 0.03% report indicated President Donald Trump was not interested in reviving the terms of a memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June. Meanwhile, Iran is preparing a list of conditions to reopen the strait after Qatar's prime minister pressed Tehran on freedom of navigation.boereport+2