Rekor El Niño Dünya Sıcaklığını 10 Yıl İleri Saracak

This year's record-breaking El Niño will do more than intensify extreme weather around the globe: it will effectively fast-forward the planet's temperature to conditions scientists expect will become the norm by the late 2030s, according to an analysis published Wednesday by The Washington Post.washingtonpost

The finding underscores a sobering reality: the combined forces of human-caused warming and an unprecedented El Niño are compressing what was once a distant climate future into the present, offering a real-time glimpse of what average global conditions may look like in roughly a decade.

Rekor Kıran Bir El Niño Şekilleniyor

Climate models project this El Niño could peak at around 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in the tropical Pacific, which would make it the strongest on record. The event is strengthening at a historic pace, with forecasters projecting it will reach peak intensity by late 2026. The World Meteorological Organization warned as early as May that an El Niño was 80 percent likely during the northern hemisphere summer, with probabilities of continuation near or above 90 percent through at least November.yaleclimateconnections+2

The warming influence on global temperatures is expected to be profound, with more than an 80 percent chance that 2027 becomes the warmest year on record, according to The Washington Post. Carbon Brief has estimated a 35 percent chance that 2026 itself could surpass 2024 as the hottest year, with temperatures around 1.51°C above pre-industrial levels.washingtonpost+2

Dolphin Tayfunu: Aşırı Hava Olaylarında Bir Örnek Olay

The consequences of this climate convergence are already visible. Typhoon Dolphin, which made landfall in Zhejiang province on August 10, traveled roughly 6,000 kilometers from its origin near the International Date Line: the farthest-origin typhoon ever to strike China. Its 16-day lifespan was three times that of a typical typhoon.wtvbam

El Niño conditions shifted Dolphin's formation point farther east in the Pacific, giving it a longer track over warm ocean waters to organize and intensify, according to Xiangbo Feng, a tropical cyclones researcher at the University of Reading. "This provides storms more time to organise and intensify, and they are more likely to grow into strong or violent typhoons," Feng told Reuters.wtvbam

Single-day rainfall records were broken at 13 weather stations across China, with Beijing recording 90.7 mm of rain in one hour on Wednesday: the highest hourly total for that area since records began in 1954. More than one million people were evacuated.aljazeera+2

Isınma Bağlantısı

Scientists emphasize that climate change is amplifying the damage from storms like Dolphin. A warmer atmosphere holds roughly 7 percent more water vapor per degree Celsius of warming, expanding the moisture reservoir available to tropical cyclones, said Benjamin Horton, dean of the School of Energy and Environment at City University of Hong Kong.wtvbam

The probability of a typhoon affecting East Asia has risen from 33 percent to 65 percent, according to Feng's research, while the rate of post-landfall storm decay has decreased by roughly 45 percent between 1967 and 2018.wtvbam

"A typhoon does not have to remain intense in terms of wind speed to remain dangerous," Horton said. "Once the circulation carries large amounts of moisture inland, the flood risk can persist for days and can shift far from the coast."wtvbam