Indonesia braces as El Niño nears ‘very strong’ threshold

The World Meteorological Organization has warned that a strong El Niño event will continue to intensify during the August-to-October period, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the globe and driving shifts in rainfall patterns that threaten drought, floods, and wildfires.

The WMO released its Global Seasonal Climate Update on July 30, projecting that central Pacific sea-surface temperatures will exceed 2.9 degrees Celsius above normal. The agency said El Niño will "continue to steadily intensify into a strong event" over the coming months.wmo+2

UN Secretary-General António Guterres used stark language to underscore the danger. "El Niño is not just on our doorstep — it is inside the house and turning up the heat," he said. "This is only a warm-up act. El Niño is strengthening — adding fuel to a planet already on fire." Guterres called for an immediate halt to the expansion of fossil fuels, warning that without action "these dangers will become even more deadly."eenews+1

Compounding Climate Signals

In addition to El Niño, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole — in which the western Indian Ocean warms while the eastern Indian Ocean cools — has been forecast, a combination that could amplify regional climate impacts including drought, floods, and wildfire risk, particularly around the Indian Ocean basin. The WMO said it is intensifying its mobilization of information and support services to help countries anticipate and minimize impacts.reuters

The warning came as Europe battled severe wildfires — France declared a major emergency after blazes forced more than 200,000 people to evacuate — while India's monsoon season has produced below-normal rainfall. In the United States, heat domes and early-season drought have triggered large complex fires across national forests in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and Nevada.wionews

Indonesia Prepares for Extended Dry Season

Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) reported on Tuesday that the current El Niño has an ENSO index of +1.59, placing it in the "strong" category with the potential to become "very strong". BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani said his agency had warned of potential impacts as early as mid-March, when the phenomenon was still projected to remain moderate.antaranews

Rainfall from August to September is expected to remain low to very low across much of Indonesia, with the rainy season not projected to arrive until mid-October. The agency has initiated weather modification operations to refill depleted reservoirs and support fire prevention, while noting that areas south of the equator — including Java, Bali, and East Nusa Tenggara — face a drier and longer dry season than normal.antaranews

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said that governments and agencies need to take "concrete steps for early warning to protect at-risk communities".ekantipur