France tops World Cup betting odds as semifinals set for Tuesday and Wednesday

With the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinals now complete, prediction markets and sportsbooks have installed France as the clear tournament favorite heading into semifinal week. On Polymarket, France holds a 39% implied probability of lifting the trophy, well ahead of England at 21%, according to the platform's live odds updated July 12. On Kalshi, France is priced at a near-identical 39%.polymarket+2

The Semifinals Shape Up

The final four is set: France will face Spain on Tuesday, July 14, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, while England meets Argentina on Wednesday, July 15, in Atlanta. France advanced with a 2-0 win over Morocco, Spain edged Belgium 2-1, England beat Norway 2-1 in extra time, and Argentina dispatched Switzerland 3-1 after extra time.cbssports+2

France enters as a slight favorite against Spain, listed at -144 to advance on FanDuel with Spain at +118 — translating to roughly a 55-45 edge for Les Bleus. The England-Argentina semifinal is even tighter, with England opening at -120 to advance and Argentina at -105, a near coin flip at approximately 52-48. ESPN lists England at +340 and Argentina at +360 to win the entire tournament.cbssports+3

The Golden Boot Race

The individual scoring battle has narrowed to Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi, who each have eight goals entering the semifinals. Mbappe holds the tiebreaker edge with three assists to Messi's one, placing him atop FIFA's official standings. On Kalshi's Golden Boot market, Mbappe is priced at 61%, while the broader market consensus puts Messi as the only realistic challenger. Erling Haaland, eliminated with Norway in the quarterfinals, finished with seven goals, while England's Harry Kane sits on six.bolavip+3

What Comes Next

The winner of France-Spain will face the victor of England-Argentina in the final on July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. A third-place match is set for July 18 in Miami Gardens. With both semifinals being priced competitively, the prediction markets suggest that while France remains the team to beat, any of the final four could emerge as champions.sportingnews+1