Bettors favor Ian Buck to succeed Huang as Nvidia CEO

Jensen Huang has resigned from Nvidia, and prediction-market traders are now betting on two questions: who will run the chipmaker permanently, and where its co-founder goes next. On Kalshi, Nvidia executive Ian Buck leads the market for the next CEO with a 35% chance, according to CNBC. Interim CEO Colette Kress trails at about 30%, Seeking Alpha reported. Kalshi traders also give Huang 27% odds of joining one of Elon Musk's companies, SpaceX or xAI. Polymarket puts that outcome at about 10%.seekingalpha.com+2

On Thursday, November 12, Nvidia's board announced that Huang had stepped down as president, CEO and director, effective immediately. Kress, the company's chief financial officer, will serve as interim CEO and keep her CFO role while the board considers internal and external candidates for the permanent job. A regulatory filing showed the board accepted his resignation on November 11.investor.nvidia.com+1

A fast reversal

His position fell apart over a few days. Huang admitted to an affair with Alice Huang, a Megaspeed executive whom U.S. intelligence officials believe is a Chinese spy. Then on Wednesday, the New York Times reported a second relationship, with Nvidia healthcare vice president Kimberly Powell. After that second report, the Kalshi odds that Huang would leave by year-end jumped from the high teens to 75% before the announcement, The Wall Street Journal News Corp ↘ 2.37% reported. Nvidia also named former Synopsys ↗ 0.14% CEO Harvey Jones as the board's first chair.tradingview.com+2

Handicapping the succession

Buck runs Nvidia's hyperscale and high-performance computing business. The Action Network notes that he is widely credited with creating CUDA, the software platform behind much of Nvidia's hold on AI developers. It also notes a settlement rule on both platforms: interim CEOs do not count, so Kress's temporary appointment does not resolve either market. Among outside candidates, Arm Holdings ↘ 1.60% CEO Rene Haas was at 8% on Kalshi. The odds have moved sharply. Former Apple ↘ 0.08% CEO Tim Cook briefly topped 90% before falling to about 10%.tradingview.com+2

The Musk factor

The bets on Musk's companies trace back to a Wednesday-night post on X. ZeroHedge wrote "Elon please hire Jensen," and Musk replied, "That would be an honor". Musk did not name a company or role, and his reply was not a formal offer. Prediction markets also list AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ↗ 5.32% and Tesla ↗ 1.96% as other possible landing spots.cnbc.com+2

Nvidia gave no reason for the resignation, and Huang has not commented.morningstar.com