PitchBook data shows venture strain before Anthropic IPO

Anthropic's initial public offering is about a week away, and venture investors are watching it closely. Data from PitchBook suggests the startup funding market is under more stress than the excitement around the deal implies. Shares of the Claude maker are expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Thursday, November 19, under the ticker "ANT," Reuters reported. The company is offering 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each. At the top of that range, the deal would raise up to $64.4 billion and value Anthropic at about $1.4 trillion on a fully diluted basis.reuters.com

A banner moment, and a warning

The listing is "primed to be a banner moment for VC," but "venture seems to be structurally over its skis," Fortune's Allie Garfinkle wrote on Thursday. She cited PitchBook data showing that startups now reach a $5 billion valuation in 80% less time but with 74% more capital. "Cracks are beginning to show in venture, including large amounts of AI-related debt and a likely slowdown in data center expansion given the recent election," PitchBook senior research analyst Emily Zheng told Fortune.fortune.com

Zheng said the IPO window remains shut for all but a few companies such as SpaceX and Anthropic. Once mega IPOs are removed from 2026's totals, she said, exit value is stuck at the same low level seen every year since the pandemic. Recent tech debuts have also been mixed. CoreWeave and Circle are trading above their listing-day levels, while Figma and Cerebras are down more than 40%, according to Fortune.fortune.com

The liquidity case

Others see the deal as a turning point. On "Bloomberg Tech," Canvas Ventures co-founder Rebecca Lynn said the listing could bring long-awaited liquidity back to venture capital, validate a new generation of AI-first startups and fuel fresh investment across Silicon Valley. Zheng described the stakes in similar terms. "Strong performance would validate AI's enormous private valuations," she said, while "weak performance would bring into question whether AI companies are wildly overvalued."bloomberg.com

A deal priced amid volatility

Anthropic is moving ahead despite a recent sell-off in tech stocks. The price range falls short of the roughly $2 trillion valuation some outlets reported weeks ago, Fortune noted. Demand appears strong, though. Pricing is expected on Wednesday, November 18, and bankers may already be aiming higher, according to Fortune.fortune.com+1

Separately, cornerstone investors including Alphabet's Google, Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices will buy $26 billion of stock. That brings total proceeds to as much as $90.4 billion, Reuters reported. The filing also shows run-rate revenue of about $81 billion as of October 31 and nearly $900 billion in computing commitments. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading the deal.reuters.com

"Anthropic could become an exceptionally successful company, but at this valuation, much of that success is already reflected in the price," Truth Ventures founder Varun Datta told Reuters.reuters.com