Traders bet on Huang’s Nvidia exit as board weighs ouster

Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket now expect Jensen Huang to leave as chief executive of Nvidia ↗ 2.87%, the chipmaker he co-founded. Three days ago the same markets gave that outcome low odds. The shift came after The Wall Street Journal News Corp ↗ 0.40% reported that the board was preparing to remove him. In the separate betting on who succeeds him, two longtime insiders lead: Ian Buck, Nvidia's hyperscale computing chief, and Colette Kress, its chief financial officer.

Odds swing sharply

Late on November 11, Polymarket's contract on Huang leaving by year-end reached 87%, up from about 16.5% a day earlier, TokenPost reported. Kalshi's market on when he leaves put the chance at 62% for a departure before November 13. The reversal was steep. On November 9, CNBC reported that Kalshi traders saw just a 17% chance he would be gone by 2027.kalshi.com+2

In the succession markets, Kalshi had Buck at 35%, Kress at 30% and Arm Holdings ↗ 12.05% CEO Rene Haas at 8%, according to Seeking Alpha. Polymarket's prices have moved through the day. On its listing, a "no change" option rose to 29% and briefly ranked first, ahead of Buck and Kress. That option does not mean traders think Huang will stay. Under the market's rules, it pays out if Nvidia names no permanent successor by December 31, 2028, and interim CEOs do not count. Reuters noted that trading volume in the successor market is small.seekingalpha.com+2

A board meeting with no outcome yet

Nvidia's board met late on November 11 to decide whether to oust Huang, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters. Bloomberg reported that the board has been working with an outside firm to identify possible replacements. As of Thursday morning, CNBC reported that no result had been announced. Nvidia shares fell more than 8% in after-hours trading on Wednesday after the Journal's report. Rivals AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ↗ 7.32% and Broadcom ↗ 3.99% rose before the market opened.cbsnews.com+3

The crisis started on November 8. That day Huang admitted to an extramarital affair with a woman U.S. officials believe is a Chinese spy, and the board opened an investigation into whether he had been the target of a foreign intelligence effort. Then The New York Times reported a second relationship, this one with an executive who reported to him.fortune.com+1

No anointed successor

Huang has never named a successor. Many analysts see Buck, who led the CUDA software platform, and Kress, CFO since 2013, as the most likely candidates, at least in the short term. Semafor reported that some board members favor Kress as interim CEO. Armina Rosenberg of Minotaur Capital called Kress "the natural choice" for the interim role. She said the bigger question was who would lead Nvidia's technology roadmap over the long term. "The market is starting to price Nvidia without its founder as the likely outcome, not a tail risk," she told Reuters.miamiherald.com+1