Saudi Arabia leads OPEC output jump, report shows

OPEC's crude production rose by about 1.97 million barrels per day in October to roughly 27.16 million bpd, according to the group's latest monthly report, Anadolu Agency reported. Saudi Arabia and Iraq drove most of the increase. The report, published Wednesday, November 11, shows Gulf producers continuing to restore supply that the Iran war cut off earlier in the year. OPEC also left its demand outlook unchanged.aa.com.tr

Saudi Arabia leads the recovery

Using OPEC's secondary-source estimates, Saudi production rose 1.18 million bpd to about 9.19 million bpd. Iraq added 496,000 bpd to reach 4.49 million bpd, and Kuwait gained 232,000 bpd to about 2 million bpd, Anadolu reported. Output also rose in the UAE, Libya, Venezuela and Gabon. Iran posted the largest decline, falling 44,000 bpd to about 1.91 million bpd, and Nigeria slipped by 27,000 bpd.aa.com.tr

Saudi Arabia's own figures were higher. The kingdom told OPEC it pumped 10.563 million bpd in October, up from 8.372 million bpd in September and its highest level since February, when it reported 10.882 million bpd, according to Reuters Thomson Reuters Corporation ↗ 0.10%. Bloomberg described that as a 26% jump, slightly above the country's OPEC quota. It said the regional recovery is helping to push prices down.reuters.com+1

The wider OPEC+ alliance raised output by 2.04 million bpd to 41.23 million bpd, Reuters reported.reuters.com

Demand outlook unchanged

OPEC still expects global oil demand to grow by 180,000 bpd in 2026 to average 105.72 million bpd. It forecasts a stronger rise of 2.55 million bpd in 2027, to about 108.28 million bpd, according to Anadolu. OPEC projects that OECD demand will fall by 230,000 bpd this year before growing by 540,000 bpd next year.aa.com.tr

Still short of pre-war levels

Independent surveys earlier in the week showed a smaller gain. A Reuters survey found that output from OPEC's 11 members rose 1.38 million bpd to 22.87 million bpd in October. That is about 90% of February's level, with exports still limited by the war and a US blockade of Iranian shipments. A Bloomberg survey put the October increase at 930,000 bpd, The Edge Consultancy noted. It added that OPEC's report totals still count the UAE, which left the group effective May 1. That partly explains why OPEC's headline figure is higher than the survey estimates.reuters.com+1

The recovery has come alongside falling crude prices. Brent dropped below $92 a barrel this week as President Donald Trump signaled restraint on Iran, Oilprice.com reported. Even so, Saudi Aramco says it could go further. It can restore pre-conflict output within days and reach its 12 million bpd capacity in under three weeks if asked, according to Anadolu.uk.finance.yahoo.com+1