Prediction markets bet Nvidia CEO Huang survives probe

Nvidia's board has opened an investigation into Jensen Huang, but traders on prediction markets are betting he keeps his job. Shares of the chipmaker fell more than 5% on Monday, November 9, after Huang admitted to an extramarital affair with a woman whom U.S. intelligence officials, according to The New York Times ↗ 5.57%, identified as a Chinese spy.cnbc.com

What traders are pricing

On Kalshi, traders gave a 17% chance that Huang is gone by 2027, rising to 30% by 2028 and 35% by 2029. They put the odds at 75% that he leaves by 2031, CNBC reported. On Polymarket, traders gave about one-in-four odds that Huang resigns or is forced out by the end of March 2027. Kalshi resolves its contracts using Bloomberg reporting, while Polymarket relies on official statements from the company or Huang. CNBC has a commercial relationship with Kalshi.cnbc.com

A separate snapshot reported by Yahoo Finance showed Polymarket giving 14% odds that Huang's resignation or removal is announced by December 31, making him an "overwhelming favorite to survive the year." Outside the markets, opinions were split. Yale's Jeffrey Sonnenfeld put Huang's chances of survival at "roughly 50-50," and Future Fund's Gary Black wrote that he doubted Huang would remain CEO. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. said there was only a small chance Huang is removed and called him "not replaceable," but warned the probe would weigh on the stock in the near term. Reuters reported that most analysts do not expect the investigation to end with Huang stepping down.finance.yahoo.com+2

The probe and the selloff

On Sunday, Nvidia said a committee of independent directors, working with outside counsel, would investigate "recent reporting" that Huang had been "the target of a foreign intelligence effort". The board said it had no reason to believe national security or company secrets had been compromised, and it expressed confidence in Huang, who will keep leading the company during the review.abc7.com+1

The stock fell as much as 8% at Monday's open before recovering some of the loss. The S&P 500 ↗ 2.37% and Nasdaq Composite rose on the day (The New York Times; Reuters via Yahoo Finance). Nvidia shares are now more than 21% below their early-October peak, which puts the stock in a bear market.nytimes.com+1

The allegations

The New York Times reported in October that U.S. authorities had concluded Alice Huang, a former executive at Singapore-based Megaspeed, was a Chinese intelligence asset. Megaspeed is an Nvidia customer, and Alice Huang is not related to Jensen Huang. China's foreign ministry called the allegations "baseless and purely slanderous smears against China". In a message to employees, Huang wrote, "I am dedicated to safeguarding Nvidia and reinforcing America's national security".cnn.com+2