European gas dips below €100 after first breach since 2022

Europe's benchmark natural gas price has gone above €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time since 2022, with little sign that liquefied natural gas shipments from the Persian Gulf will recover before winter. The Dutch TTF contract settled 4.85% higher on Wednesday, October 28, ING said. The jump came after QatarEnergy extended force majeure on deliveries to several buyers through the end of December, and as unplanned outages in Norway added to supply worries.think.ing.com

Prices briefly reached €100 at about 1335 GMT on Wednesday, according to Reuters, citing Intercontinental Exchange ↘ 0.53% data. That is still well below the 2022 peak of about €340. The rally eased on Thursday, when TTF futures slipped back below €100 as investors weighed new diplomatic efforts in the Gulf aimed at preventing renewed US strikes on Iran, La Repubblica reported.fidelity.com+1

Qatar's outage reaches into winter

Italian utility Edison said QatarEnergy will not deliver three more cargoes to the Adriatic LNG terminal. That stretches the force majeure, in place since early April, to the end of December. In total, 38 cargoes are now affected, about 5 billion cubic meters of gas, and Edison has replaced 27 of them, according to the company. Buyers in Pakistan and Bangladesh were also told their notices now run through year-end, while India's Petronet LNG had force majeure extended for November supplies, Pipeline & Gas Journal reported.pgjonline.com+1

ING's Warren Patterson wrote that the outlook "appears more dire amid the risk of renewed US strikes on Iran following the US midterm elections next week." He also pointed to forecasts of colder-than-usual weather in Northwest Europe starting next week, with EU storage just under 75% full. Power generators are already switching from gas to coal, and fertilizer maker Yara cut its European gas use by more than 7% year on year in the third quarter after curtailing ammonia output, ING noted.think.ing.com

US exporters benefit

Supply problems in the Middle East are increasing demand for US cargoes. On Thursday, Cheniere Energy ↘ 4.26% raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $8.75 billion to $9.25 billion, up from $7.90 billion to $8.40 billion. It also raised its quarterly dividend by more than 12%, the company said. This is the company's third guidance increase this year.nasdaq.com

Third-quarter net income rose to $1.17 billion from $1.05 billion a year earlier, and LNG revenue climbed to $6.1 billion from $4.3 billion, Reuters reported. Cheniere exported 188 cargoes in the quarter. In October it also signed agreements to supply QatarEnergy with up to 4 million tonnes per year starting in the early 2030s. "Our outstanding results and improved outlook enable us to further raise our guidance ranges for 2026," Chief Executive Jack Fusco said.reuters.com+1