Ukraine’s Vivaldi offensive derails Russian Donbas push

A months-long Ukrainian counteroffensive in northern Donetsk has pushed Russian troops back and disrupted Moscow's attempt to encircle the remaining Ukrainian-held cities of the Donbas, The New York Times reported on Wednesday. Western analysts say Russia has lost a considerable amount of ground during the operation, which Kyiv calls Operation Vivaldi. The gains run against Russian President Vladimir Putin's repeated claim that the fall of the Donbas is inevitable.nytimes

Russia had planned to approach Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north through the Lyman sector while also advancing from the south, creating a wide encirclement of what Ukrainian forces call the "fortress belt". Vivaldi disrupted the northern part of that plan. Russia is still attacking hard in southern Donbas, but Kyiv has reorganized its defenses there and has so far stopped the breakthroughs Moscow would need to besiege the cities, according to the Times.kyivpost+1

A secret offensive

The 3rd Army Corps, led by Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletsky, launched the counterattack in May near the village of Nove. Writing for the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), journalist David Axe said the corps cut behind Russia's 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies and forced them to retreat across the Zherebets River. He wrote that this wiped out 18 months of Russian progress toward Sloviansk. The corps kept the operation largely secret until late September. Axe argued that the silence took advantage of Russian commanders' habit of giving their superiors misleading reports. The corps also used ground robots and drones heavily, including remote-controlled armored vehicles packed with mines.cepa

President Volodymyr Zelensky first said Ukrainian forces had retaken 176 square kilometers (68 square miles). He later gave a lower estimate of 125 to 140 square kilometers. "Vivaldi is a very successful operation. It is not finished yet," he said, and a fourth phase is being prepared. Ukrainian officials say Russia has suffered more than 5,000 casualties in the operation, and about 250 Russian troops have been captured. Those claims cannot be fully verified.kyivpost

Worst month in years

According to the Finnish group Black Bird Group, the area under Russian control shrank by about 190 square kilometers in September. The group called it "the greatest monthly net territorial loss for Russia in our dataset since June 2023". The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) gave a more cautious figure: a net Russian loss of about 81 square kilometers for the month. On Oct. 1, Putin claimed Russian forces had taken 1,301 square kilometers in September, a figure independent maps do not support.nytimes+1

Fighting widens

ISW's latest assessment says Russian attacks near Lyman on Oct. 5 and 6 failed to advance. Ukrainian troops are reportedly moving along the Zherebets River and widening their counterattacks toward Rusynyi Yar in the Kostiantynivka direction. ISW also said Ukrainian forces have advanced or held positions in western Zaporizhzhia, southeast of Novoselivka. One Russian military blogger claimed at least 8,000 servicemen have left the area covered by Russia's Western Grouping of Forces.newsukraine.rbc