Wright says Hormuz oil shipments rising amid skepticism

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Monday that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continue to climb, with the seven-day rolling average reaching over nine million barrels per day, while cautioning traders not to expect a rapid diplomatic breakthrough with Iran over the contested waterway.seekingalpha+1

Speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance, Wright also said he expects Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea to be "up and running very soon," a notably optimistic assessment given that two regional officials told the Associated Press on Monday that repairs to the drone-damaged conduit could take three to five weeks.english.ahram+1

Hormuz Flows and Skepticism

Wright described the seven-day average of over nine million barrels per day as "the highest the seven-day average has ever been" since the conflict began. Combined with bypass pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, total flows out of the region reached roughly 13 to 14 million barrels per day, he said in an earlier ABC News interview on September 6.businessupturn

Independent trackers have repeatedly questioned the administration's Hormuz figures. Bloomberg reported that many tanker-tracking firms peg recent flows at around four to five million barrels per day, and Reuters noted a gap of three to five million barrels per day between independent vessel data and Wright's claims. Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, has described the administration's methodology as "mathemagics," suggesting figures may aggregate shipments across multiple days.facebook+2

Wright separately warned oil traders against betting on a swift resolution stemming from Iran's recent diplomatic signals, even as Tehran has indicated openness to negotiating a provisional shipping agreement with Gulf nations.seekingalpha

Pipeline in Peril

Wright's upbeat comments about the East-West Pipeline stand in tension with on-the-ground realities. Drone strikes on September 10 forced Saudi Arabia to shut the 1,200-kilometer conduit, which had been carrying up to four to five million barrels per day as an alternative to the disrupted strait. The pipeline stretches from the Abqaiq oilfield to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea and had recently been expanded to a capacity of seven million barrels per day.aljazeera+1

Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia could run out of export stocks at Yanbu within five to seven days without the pipeline resuming. Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthi rebels seized more strategic Red Sea islands on Monday, further threatening alternative shipping routes.pbs+2

Market Under Pressure

The International Energy Agency estimated Gulf-country oil exports at about 13 million barrels per day in August, nearly half their pre-war level, and forecast a decline in global oil supply in 2026. Refined-product and liquefied petroleum gas exports remain well below pre-conflict levels, with diesel markets particularly tight.businessupturn

With the pipeline offline, Iran's proxies expanding their reach, and independent data casting doubt on administration claims, the path to stable Middle Eastern oil flows remains fraught — regardless of how quickly Wright expects the situation to improve.