WMO issues most certain El Nino forecast in its history

The World Meteorological Organization on Thursday issued its most unequivocal forecast in its 50-year history, warning that El Niño is intensifying into a "very strong" event with a "nearly 100%" likelihood of persisting through February 2027.wmo+1

Fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, the phenomenon is expected to strengthen further in the coming months before peaking toward the end of the year, with climate impacts continuing well into 2027.wmo

Uncharted Waters

"El Niño is being supersized before our eyes," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement. "The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up."wired+1

The scale of the underlying ocean warming is striking. The Niño 3.4 index, a closely watched measure of sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, reached 2°C above normal in July, with weekly readings climbing as high as 2.6°C through mid-August. Beneath the surface, temperatures in parts of the Pacific were more than 8°C above normal in July and early August — an extraordinary reservoir of heat that helps explain forecasters' near-total certainty.news.un+1

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office, described the event as potentially the largest El Niño in living memory, adding that 2027 is "very likely" to replace 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded. Wired reported that climate scientist Daniel Swain of the University of California called it "probably one of the larger, if not the largest, climate events — aside from long-term warming — that anybody alive is potentially ever experiencing."rte+1

Impacts Already Underway

From September through November, forecasters expect above-normal temperatures across nearly the entire Earth's surface. Impacts are already visible: the United States experienced its hottest summer on record, drought along the Nile is worsening Sudan's hunger crisis, and Puerto Rico has turned to water rationing. Uganda is preparing for up to 25% more rainfall than normal through December.newvision+2

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the organization is mounting an unprecedented mobilization with national weather agencies. "This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response," she said. The effort marks the first time the WMO has launched such a large-scale coordination with national meteorological services, aimed at strengthening early-warning systems for sectors including agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.news.un+2

A Warmer Baseline

Scientists stress that El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon, not caused by human-induced climate change. But this cycle is unfolding against a backdrop of already record-warm oceans, amplifying the heat and moisture available to fuel extreme weather. The question now, as the UN News framed it, is no longer whether El Niño will strengthen — but how much disruption it will leave behind.rte+1