China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI beats forecasts, hitting four-month high

China's private-sector manufacturing gauge accelerated in August, offering a brighter picture of factory activity than the government's own survey released a day earlier.

The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.5 in August from 50.9 in July, surpassing the consensus forecast of 51, according to data published Monday by S&P Global ↘ 0.98% and Caixin Media. The result marked the strongest reading in four months and extended the sector's expansion streak — the joint-longest in five years.tradingview+2

Orders and Output Strengthen

New orders rose for the fifteenth consecutive month, the longest run of growth since 2018, buoyed by the fastest increase in foreign sales in six months. Output grew for a ninth straight month, with the latest expansion the strongest in three months. Backlogs of work climbed for a seventh month running at the quickest pace since March, pointing to sustained demand pressure.tradingview

Purchasing activity rebounded after a dip in July, while supplier delivery times were largely unchanged. Employment held steady following two months of gains.tradingview

Price Pressures and Sentiment Diverge

On the cost side, input price inflation picked up for the first time in four months, driven by higher raw material prices. Output prices, however, fell for the first time in 2026, suggesting manufacturers absorbed rising costs rather than passing them on to customers. Business confidence weakened to a seven-month low despite the improving activity readings.tradingview

Two Surveys, Two Stories

The Caixin PMI contrasted with China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI, released Saturday, which came in at 49.8 — up from July's 49.2 and above the 49.5 forecast, but still below the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction. The official survey's production sub-index rose to 50.4 and new orders jumped to 50.6.apnews+1

The divergence reflects the surveys' different samples: the Caixin index, compiled by S&P Global, leans toward smaller and export-oriented firms, while the NBS gauge covers a broader base of larger, state-linked manufacturers. Both surveys, however, pointed to improving order books and resilient export demand heading into the final quarter of the year.caixinglobal