Gold nears $4,700 as record central bank buying fuels rally

Central banks purchased a record 288.9 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026, snapping up the metal even as prices were falling, according to the World Gold Council's Q2 Gold Demand Trends report. The buying spree — a 62 percent jump from a year earlier and more than five times the revised Q1 total of 57 tonnes — has helped underpin a rally that has lifted gold roughly 14 percent in August alone.gold+3

Gold settled near $4,598 on Tuesday and briefly touched $4,730 intraday on Thursday morning, according to market data and the attached analysis. The metal has gained about 35 percent over the past twelve months, buoyed by a combination of central bank accumulation, geopolitical tensions, and shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy.barchart+2

Poland and China Lead the Charge

The National Bank of Poland led Q2 buyers with 51 tonnes, bringing its official reserves to 632 tonnes as it pursues a stated target of 700 tonnes. The People's Bank of China followed with 33 tonnes — its largest quarterly addition since late 2023 and the 21st consecutive month of accumulation. Uzbekistan added 16 tonnes, Kazakhstan 15 tonnes, and Jordan and the Czech Republic each contributed 6 tonnes.voronoiapp+2

A World Gold Council survey of 74 central banks conducted in June found 45 percent planning further purchases over the next twelve months, the highest proportion recorded since 2018.ad-hoc-news

Wall Street Eyes Higher Prices

J.P. Morgan JPMorgan Chase & Co. ↘ 0.00% has projected gold could reach $6,300 per ounce by year-end, though the bank acknowledged in July that risks to its forecast skew to the downside given possible early interest rate hikes by the Fed. Bank of America ↗ 0.26% trimmed its 2026 average gold forecast to $4,360 an ounce but said $5,000 remains within reach once the tightening cycle ends.finance.yahoo+1

Investor flows have reinforced the official-sector demand. Physically backed gold ETFs absorbed $3 billion in net inflows during July, lifting global holdings back to 4,068 tonnes, followed by a $6.4 billion weekly surge in early August — the strongest weekly expansion in ten months. The SPDR Gold Trust ↘ 2.68% alone recorded roughly $637 million in a single day.ad-hoc-news

All Eyes on Jackson Hole

Attention now turns to the Jackson Hole symposium, where new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver his first major policy address. With core PCE inflation running at 3.3 percent and markets pricing about 69 percent odds that the Fed holds rates steady at 3.50–3.75 percent in September, traders are parsing every signal for clues on whether gold's rally has room to extend — or whether a hawkish surprise could trigger a breather after an extraordinary month.ad-hoc-news