ASML lifts 2026 outlook again as top customers defer its priciest machines

ASML Holding ↘ 0.21% lifted its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to €43 billion to €45 billion, the second upward revision this year, driven by surging demand for lithography equipment from chipmakers racing to expand AI-related capacity. Yet the Dutch company faces a split narrative: its most expensive next-generation machines are being deferred by key customers, and institutional investors are taking diverging positions.aktiencheck+1

Guidance Boost Meets High-NA Caution

The upgraded outlook followed second-quarter results that beat expectations, with net sales of €9.3 billion and gross margin of 54.0 percent. To meet demand, ASML plans to expand manufacturing capacity for its low-NA EUV and DUV immersion systems by 30 percent in each of the next two years.ad-hoc-news+1

However, TSMC Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ↘ 0.96%, ASML's largest customer, has reportedly indicated it will not acquire High-NA EUV tools until at least 2029, opting instead for advanced packaging to manage costs. Samsung Electronics has similarly pushed commercial deployment of the machines to around 2030, when its 1-nanometer process node is expected.aktiencheck

Institutional Sentiment Splits

A wave of Q2 2026 13F filings reveals sharp disagreements among large investors. Arrowstreet Capital increased its ASML position by 195.8 percent, while Sei Investments raised its stake by 223.7 percent. Temasek, Bridgewater, and Berkshire Hathaway ↘ 0.57% also added shares.marketbeat+1

On the other side, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital reduced its ASML holding by 99.62 percent, nearly exiting the position entirely, with a negative 3.93 percent impact on its portfolio. TCW Group sold 18,743 shares, trimming its position by 12.4 percent. Annex Advisory Services cut its stake by 42.7 percent.aktiencheck+2

Analyst Consensus Holds Firm

Wall Street remains broadly constructive. Bernstein reaffirmed ASML as a top pick on August 10 with a €2,500 price target, while Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ↘ 0.31% added the stock to its European Conviction List. JPMorgan ↘ 0.07% raised its target to $2,400 with an overweight rating in July. The consensus rating stands at "Moderate Buy" with an average price target of $1,970.33, according to MarketBeat.marketbeat+1

The company continues returning capital, having repurchased 266,460 shares between August 3 and 7 for roughly €390.7 million as part of a €12 billion buyback program. ASML's next earnings report is scheduled for October 14.ad-hoc-news+1